Weekly LPG Market Brief 27 October 2025

Market Overview

The LPG complex began the week under moderate downward pressure, with sentiment softening across both refrigerated and pressurized segments. Export volumes from the US Gulf and Middle East remain steady, but Asia’s demand recovery is proving slower than expected. Petrochemical margins continue to compress, keeping buyers cautious and selective in their term and spot procurement.

Saudi Aramco’s November CP expectations are trending lower, following crude’s mild correction and a quieter buying pace in Northeast Asia.

Freight & Logistics

Freight sentiment steadied after several weeks of volatility:

  • VLGC (84,000 cbm) — BLPG Ras Tanura–Chiba index eased to around $93–95 / t, marginally lower week-on-week.

  • Pressurized (3,500–11,000 cbm) — Short-haul rates in Southeast Asia remain firm, with 3.5–5 kt units achieving mid-$60s / mt TCE equivalent. Routes between Port Klang, Bangkok, and Vietnam remain active on prompt parcels.

  • Time-charter activity is dominated by short-term coverage, as charterers stay defensive amid muted forward price signals.

Fleet availability across Singapore–Philippines–Vietnam remains balanced, though incremental newbuild deliveries in East Asia continue to pressure owners’ yield expectations.

Regional Dynamics

  • China — Import demand steady but subdued, with buyers preferring smaller parcels and flexible delivery windows amid comfortable domestic propane stocks.

  • India — Private importers may re-enter for Q4 restocking ahead of winter, offering mild upside to regional tonnage demand.

  • Southeast Asia — Tender and bilateral activity continue at a measured pace; buyers remain price-sensitive and pragmatic, focusing on logistics efficiency and prompt delivery reliability.

Atlas View

The market tone remains cautiously bearish with short-term downside risk capped by steady shipping demand and balanced fleet supply. Buyers continue to test offers and avoid long commitments, while owners seek to preserve utilization through flexible voyage coverage.

Atlas Gas Brokers expects muted trading activity this week as participants reassess Q4 fundamentals and await clearer cues from the upcoming Saudi CP announcement and winter demand outlook.

Insights from Argus LPG Conference 2025 Istanbul 

16th October 2025
The Argus LPG Conference 2025 held in Istanbul gathered global producers, traders, shipowners, and downstream players to discuss shifting market fundamentals amid tightening trade flows and evolving demand centers.

Global Trade Flows

Delegates highlighted continued U.S.–China trade friction, which has disrupted traditional propane flows. The consensus: it remains impossible to offset U.S. propane supply into China purely by cargo switching, with approximately 3 million tonnes of additional requirements expected in 2025 vs 2024. Regional demand from India, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea continues to absorb incremental U.S. barrels.

PDH Sector: Slowdown Ahead

A slowdown in China’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) commissioning pace is emerging. Several projects originally targeted for 2024–2025 have been deferred or delayed, trimming near-term LPG demand growth. The aggregate new capacity expected between 2024 and 2026 now stands near 7.3 million tonnes per annum, but with staggered start-ups pushing meaningful demand uplift into late 2026.

Regional Expansion: Bangladesh Case Study

Aygaz announced substantial progress on its Bangladesh investments — including a 16 kt storage facility at Chittagong, the country’s largest, and an ongoing 5.5 kt assembly facility in Dhaka. The Bangladesh LPG market, currently around 1.6 million tonnes, continues to grow at roughly 2 % per year, supported by strong domestic distribution expansion and rising household consumption.

Market Outlook

Global LPG prices remain driven by a combination of supply-chain friction, weather-linked demand, and freight market volatility. With Asian winter demand approaching and freight rates under pressure from vessel availability, market participants are preparing for a tighter Q4 2025 and possible regional price dislocations between CFR Far East and MOPJ benchmarks.
Atlas Gas Brokers continues to monitor these developments closely — providing market intelligence, freight insights, and structured LPG solutions across Asia-Pacific.

Weekly LPG Market Brief                                                                                                  DATE: 1 October 2025

Saudi Aramco Contract Price for October 2025

Saudi Aramco set the October propane and butane CP at $495/t and $475/t respectively, down by $25/t and $15/t from the previous month. The newly announced CP came in below market expectations where term customers had submitted recommendations on propane at $540-560/t, and butane at $520-535/t.

Overview Asian Refrigerated LPG

Bearish note on the Asian market. Swap values continued to soften against crude, increased selling pressure eased cash differentials.

South China Refrigerated LPG

According to Argus Media, South China propane Index arriving 24-31 October were valued at $570.5/mt South China butane Index arriving 24-31 October were valued at $559.5/mt.

Middle East LPG

Participants in the market are watching the release of October where another round of recommendations by term customers were reportedly unchanged from the initial round where propane were pegged ar %540-$560/mt and butane at $520-535/mt.

Asian Pressurized LPG: Prices stable in South China

Export offers from terminals loading in October from south China maintained at October CP+$48/mt on a FOB basis, while indicative offers into north Vietnam remains at October CP+100/mt on a CFR Haiphong basis for cargoes arriving in October.